Cash - Closing Status 25 May

Received a cheque early this week from Mun Siong for dividends of $60.  Mun Siong pays dividends only once in a year and the dividend amount was lowered from $0.01 (ROC 7.2%) to $0.006 (ROC 4.3%) and so, this is a disappointment.  My investment value in Mun Siong though has dropped by 24% but the paper loss is still small at $363 because the amount invested is less than $2k.  It has a healthy balance sheet and a healthy order book.  But l am concern of its gross profit margin which of late has been under pressure.  Because of lower dividend and a pressured gross profit margin, l will try to sell Mun Siong away at breakeven but l will have to average down first.

Added another 7 lots on TPV this week.  TPV released a disappointing 1Q2012 results this week.  Its revenue came in 13% lesser than a year ago.  Gross profit margin is almost flat at 6%.  In just 3 months, its cash and cash equivalents dropped 41%; current ratio is now at 0.92 times from 0.96 times.  Combined sales to China and Europe is about 55% of total sales; China growth is slowing down and costs of doing business there has gone up; Europe is in serious mess so looks like extremely tough time ahead for TPV.  Reason for additional 7 lots this week is to average down and am hoping to eventually looking at reducing my investment in TPV.  Time being, will have to continue averaging down if its share price weakens further.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$1,963 Total Returns as of 18 May 

+$60 Dividends from Mun Siong

+$689 Unrealised positions improved

-$1,215 Total Returns as of 25 May

previous posting :- Cash - Closing Status 18 May 

Cash - Closing Status 18 May

For my cash portfolio in this week, l have purchased SingPost 10 lots, added TPV 6 lots, and sold off UMS 15 lots.  

Buying into SingPost and added more TPV because both are CD at the moment; their  balance sheets are reasonably in good shape.

On UMS, the expected dividend amount on 15 lots till XD is $120 but l have managed to sell it higher at nett selling price of $0.373 because there were some strength in the share price. I could have sell it at an even higher price but l reckon it is more comforting to set the target selling price than be involved in speculative trading.  I still have remaining UMS shares but these were purchased at higher price levels so l will keep them for the dividends.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$1,552 Total Returns as of 11 May 

+$316 Gain on sales of UMS

-$728 Unrealised positions worsened

-$1,963 Total Returns as of 18 May

previous posting :- Cash - Closing Status 11 May 

Olam, Wilmar, Noble ... eeny, meeny, miny, moe

Olam, Wilmar, Noble Group - all three made it to top volume chart and on Friday and both Wilmar and Olam were both at one point at their 52 week low.

Investors in particular those who speculate are now tearing their hair out figuring which one offers best returns.  Perhaps best way to deal with this is to compare them in a simple table.

To me, both the 52 week high and low are just for reference and should not be be used as the ultimate target for buying and selling decision.  l am curious how they would look like so l am comparing them at 60 day high and low.
 
I have included the dividend amount expected if the speculation failed to bear fruit and there is a need to baby sit it for one year or so.  Is the dividend amount better than bank deposit rate, definitely yes as bank deposit rates are very low at between 1% to 0.2%.

Quick ratio is there for a quick health check.

Anyways, speculation is not my cup of tea so l will avoid all threes.

Note :- Olam will announce Qtr 3 results on 15 May.

Cash - Closing Status 11 May

M1 -sold 5 lots early this week under Cash portfolio at gain of $65.  Will re-invest into M1 if it goes below $2.45 again.

UMS - Invested another 15 lots.  Recent sales of UMS by its CEO raised concern of whether there are something unpleasant happenings in the company.  And UMS made an announcement on 8 May confirming business as usual for the company so there are no worries.

On the unrealised positions, both Foreland and UMS contributed combined 80% of total paper loss.  To-date, l have 52% of total invested funds in both Foreland and UMS.

The other larger investment of 23% of total invested funds under Cash portfolio is ST Engineering and it is currently still at break-even level despite several rating upgrade by investment analysts.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$139 Total Returns as of 4 May 

+$65 Gain on sales of M1

-$1,477 Unrealised positions worsened

-$1,552 Total Returns as of 11 May

previous posting :- Cash - Closing Status 4 May 

SRS - Closing Status 11 May

Invested into Keppel Corpn 1 lot early this week; and at close of trading today l am already suffering paper loss $427 on this blue chip alone.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$258 Total Returns as of 4 May 

-$687 Unrealised positions worsened

-$946 Total Returns as of 11 May

previous posting :- SRS - Closing status 4 May

A strong 2012 start for Sarin

Sarin reported its 1Q2012 results :-

- Revenue +61% vs 1Q2011, +40% vs 4Q2011

- Gross profit margin 1Q2012 at 71%, 1Q2011 at 65%, 4Q2011 at 71% (FY2011 66.2%)

- Profit from operations +129% vs 1Q2011, +64% vs 4Q2011

- healthy Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

- zero borrowings from banks

- proposing a bonus issue on the basis of 1 bonus share for every 4 existing shares

Cash - Closing Status 4 May

There is only one movement under my Cash portfolio and it was a dividend received in the mail this week for STX Pan Ocean which l have kept it for more than 3 years and finally sold off at a huge loss in Feb'12.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

$444 Total Returns as of 27 Apr 

+$7 Dividend from STX Pan Ocean

-$590 Unrealised positions worsened

-$139 Total Returns as of 4 May

previous posting :- Cash - Closing Status 27 Apr

SRS - Closing Status 4 May

 I did a partial sales on SingPost of 4 lots this week which was purchased in Oct'11.  SingPost is currently cum dividend with expiry date on 3 July.  The profit on 4 lots sold this week is below the expected dividend amount of $100 (4 lots x $0.025) but l will have time till 4 July to re-invest in it when SingPost goes below $1.00.

  
Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$559 Total Returns as of 20 Apr 

+$61 Gain on sales of SingPost

+$239 Unrealised positions improved

-$258 Total Returns as of 4 May


previous posting :- SRS - Closing Status 20 Apr

LippoMalls to sell into strength or hold?

LippoMalls Reit (LMIR) disappoints with lower dividend declared for 1Q12.

Assuming an investor has 50 lots as of close of year 2011.  Its last done price on 30 Dec 2011 was $0.35 and it hit a high of $0.43 last week.  If the entire 50 lots is sold off then this is 23% gain or $4,000 profit amount.

Every stock price will not forever go up or down.

So, when this 50 lots is sold off then it can be bought back later when its share price going lower again say, at $0.37-$0.38 depending on one's risk appetite.


If l project its full year dividend at $0.051 then this is still 36% lower then the capital gain 23% achieved.  The capital gain is about 1.60 times (or years) of the annual dividend rate.

Is it not possible for this investor who have sold off his/her 50 lots to re-invest into LMIR within this 1.60 years at lower price than $0.43?
   

Frencken needs an urgent system overhaul

Frencken (FGL) is in for more rough ride in 2012 :-

Revenue
- SGD currency will continue to be stronger than Euro (and MYR) so revenue will be affected again.
- Semiconductor (22% business segment) though declined 10.4% in 4Q but an improvement over 3Q 27% decline.  1Q12 will be a good indication of further weakness or turnaround?
- Medical (19% business segment) 25.5% growth in 3Q is nothing to shout about as 3Q10 was at exceptionally low quarterly run rate.  It registered a 4.3% decline in 4Q.  Its full year a 9.1% rise would not be an all clear sign that Medical is a winning business segment, yet.  Let's see 1Q12.
- Analytical (17% business segment) is clearly in declining quarter on quarter trend though it recorded 14.7% growth at full year. If it is a seasonal business segment then 1Q12 should be at a very much high quarterly sales run rate of $14.6m.
- Industrial Automation (12% business segment) was a huge letdown with full year negative growth 41.5%

Gross Profit Margin
- GP margin contracted to 10.1% in FY2011 from 12.6% in FY2010 due mainly to a shift in sales mix and an increase in production costs.  This will continue into 2012 particularly when one of its production facility is in China, which has becoming costlier.

- AR days almost unchanged as of year end 2011 at 76 days versus 2010 at 74 days but AP seems being paid earlier from 63 days (2010) to 53 days (2011).  Is FGL losing support from its suppliers?

- Inventories showed improvement quarter by quarter in 2011 but it is still high at 86 days.  In value terms, it ballooned from $62m in 2010 to $70.8m in 2011 and when sales is soft so, this is really quite bad.

- Cash conversion cycle days has worsened to 109 days (in 2011) from 83 days (in 2010)

- at year end 2011, free cash flow was at negative $13.8m

- dividend payout is declining year after year since year 2006.  There was a one year improvement in 2011 but it is back to its lowering trend again when declared recently in 2012

- its analyst briefing slides are in black and white unlike previously which was in colour; probably serious belt tightening in progress in FGL.