Cash - Closing Status 29 Jun

For the Cash portfolio this week, l have received a cheque in the mail on the dividends for Foreland Fabrictech.  I am hoping for Foreland to improve on its share price and giving out higher dividends in the near future.  Otherwise, l will need to find a way to reduce and eventually divest my investment in it.

Based on previous year, the next XD dividend date on ST Engineering is on 8 Aug at the rate of $0.03 and for my 3 lots investment in it then the projected dividends receivable is at $90.  This week l have sold it all away so that l can receive its dividends in advance in the form of a disposal gain of  $147.

Bought into New Toyo 8 lots this week but l have halved my investment in it within this week itself.   The original plan was to divest the entire 8 lots because current price is already meeting my selling price target for an advance dividends.  But unfortunately only managed to sell off 4 lots; which actually lowered the expected gain on the disposal because of inability to apportion out the brokerage  charges on reduced number of shares sold.  For next week, l will continue to divest the remaining 4 lots as l doubt current stock market bull run is sustainable and l am hoping to re-invest into it again at lower prices in the near future.  l am attracted to New Toyo as it has gone through several management and operations makeovers in recent and past months.  l reckon that all these makeovers at New Toyo were and are necessary in order for it constantly improving its operations efficiency and lowering running costs in the long run.  

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$605 Total Returns as of 15 Jun 

+$252 Dividends received from Foreland

+$167 Profits on sales of ST Engineering and New Toyo

-$310 Unrealised positions worsened

-$496 Total Returns as of 29 Jun

 previous posting :- Cash - Closing Status 15 Jun 

There's something about Mary

Prospective investors on Mary Chia (MC) must not be blinded by its full year results (15M12) announced on 30 May.  MC has changed its full year financial year in 2011 to end it on 31st March 2012 which means that it is a 15-months financials.  For a more meaningful comparison, reference should be made to the 12-months financials (12M11) released on 10 Feb instead.

Revenue :- 15M12 +26.6%, 12M11 -27.2%.  MC doesn't report quarterly results so there is no comparison of 1st 3 months results versus year ago.  Under usual 12 months results, MC was in bad shape in 12M11.

Profit b4 tax :- 15M12 -$748k, 12M11 -$757k, 12M10 $2,221k

Staff costs (average per quarter) :- 2012 (1st 3 months) $2,033k, 2011 $1,776k, 2010 $1,398k.  Reasons for the significant increases as explained because of  increased headcount for new outlets, higher commissions payout in line of higher sales during 1H11, sharp increase in staff salaries.  It will be interesting if more information on the exact amount of the staff costs is available.

Gross profit margin :- this interesting info is not available so it is not possible to deduce whether there was any significant negative impact due to  competition.

Other operating expenses (average per quarter) :-  2012 (1st 3 months) $1,845k, 2011 $2,104k, 2010 $1,901k.  This expenses category seems 'under' control for now. 

Current ratio :- 15M12 at 0.39, 12M11 at 0.49, 12M10 at 0.16.  Improving versus 2010 but it probably requires many more years to achieve a 1 for 1 asset covers.

Inventories :- 2012 (1st 3 months) $754k, 2011 $678k, 2010 $515k.  I reckon current status of high or increasing inventories levels is quite dangerous unless it is backed by an increasing backlog orders?

Borrowings :- l am wondering how is it possible an audited 2010 info changed between current liabilities and non-current liabilities when 2011 results was announced on 30 May and 10 Feb?  Weird!

Working capital/cash flow :-  as reported - "The Group reported negative working capital of S$8.6 million as at YE2012 as compared to S$25.2 million as at YE2010. Notwithstanding this, the Group had a cash balance of S$2.6 million as at YE2012.  The Group is considering a fund raising exercise, and is confident that its current cash balance will be able to support its operation for the next 6 months. The Group is considering various forms and options of funds raising exercises, one of which will be divesting".

The pathetic cash balance of $2.6mil is able to cover the next 6 months operation???  Really interesting.  Anyways, MC needs to raise funds, very urgently.

Last done Stock price (@ 22 June) :- 6.5cents, 52 weeks H/L 14.0cents/6.2cents

Best World's passion to perform

Best World's (BW) reported lower full year financials on 27 Feb but it seems to continue putting up fierce fight to improve the negative situations when 1Q12 results was released on 14 May. 

Revenue :- 1Q12 +0.2%, 4Q11 -25.0% (mainly due to flood situation in Thailand)

Gross profit margin :- 1Q12 78.3%, 4Q11 77.9%

Profit/Loss before tax:- 1Q12 +8.9%, 4Q11 -51.6%

Current ratio :- 1Q12 6.3, 4Q11 6.3

Quick ratio :-   1Q12 5.6, 4Q11 5.6

Lower Inventory :- 1Q12 vs 4Q11 -10%, (1Q12 208 days, 4Q11 214 days)

Borrowings :- Nil (in both 1Q12 and 4Q11)

Net Cash Flows from Operating Activities :- 1Q12 vs 1Q11 +19%, 4Q11 vs 4Q10 -44%

EPS :- 1Q12 +17.2%, 4Q11 -31.5%

NAV :- 1Q12 23.05cents, 4Q11 23.63cents

Last done Stock price (@ 22 June) :- 17.5cents, 52 weeks H/L 20.5cents/13.5cents

According to BW, sales in Singapore is weak because 1st quarter (-7.7% yoy) being usually the weakest quarter due to seasonal and CNY festive.  Not sure how true is this?  Consumers profiles in both Singapore and Malaysia should be the same and Malaysia is able to register sales growth (+12.7% yoy).  Anyways, Malaysia seems to be BW sales growth focus in future quarters.   In Indonesia, Thailand and Taiwan, BW is facing double digit de-growth.

2Q12 would let us know whether BW is successful to stay the course on maintaining or improving its market share over competitors.  But if there is a repeat Thailand flood in 3Q12 then this could negatively impact BW badly.

In 2Q11, BW reduced dividends by 50% from 1.6cents to 0.6cents.  Keeping its dividends at 0.6cents will be a nice thing to do when 2Q12 results is expected to be announced in Aug'12 so, till then.

CPF - Closing Status 22 Jun

I have sold off LippoMalls 23 lots this week under my CPF portfolio for a profit of $344.

Its estimated dividend payout based on last year which XD on 11 Aug was at the rate of $0.0109 back then.  Based on 23 lots and at $0.0109, the expected dividend amount will be $251.  The $344 gain is definitely higher than the projected dividend of $251 and l am getting this dividend payout in advance in June instead of waiting for it to go XD in Aug month.

If only in those past years l could have been more careful in my investments then life would not have to be so tough today.  Looking at the current paper losses under this CPF portfolio then l know it is really going to be a long and tough journey ahead for me.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$14,105 Total Returns as of 8 Jun

+$344 Gain on sales of LippoMalls

+$1,506 Unrealised positions improved

-$12,255 Total Returns as of 22 Jun

previous journal :- CPF - Closing Status 8 Jun

Loyz Energy profit warning

When Loyz announced its half time results back in Feb'12, there was no earlier profit guidance at all weeks before it scheduled to announce its money losing positions back then; and I wondered why Loyz can get off so lightly.  Loyz is not a s-chip company so it should stop behaving like one.

And now at 12 midnight 23 June, Loyz announced a profit warning for its full year financial results because of :-

"The Group is expecting to report a loss for the Financial Year. The loss is mainly due to higher operating expenses arising from the addition of the oil and gas business and a one-time specific provision for doubtful receivables. The provision is for the refundable deposit due from Empire Holdings Limited."

If Loyz is able to successfully pump out oil in the later part of this year then is it able to fetch high prices on them when oil prices are currently keep falling?  Time to re-visit its drawing board in order to re-strategize to avoid falling deeper into the gutter holes it is digging? 

Cash - Closing Status 15 Jun

Received dividends in the mail this week from TPV, which l have already sold it all away in end May.

Also this week, l have invested $2k into KarinTechnology for 8 lots.  In the past two months, Karin's share price has been in the range of $0.25 to $0.28 so l find it quite a 'defensive' stock to invest in.  But l reckon this is not really an appealing stock to own by most because of its small price spread.  Its defensive share price state could be due to its daily share buyback.  Though Karin's revenue and profit is better at interim but its declining gross profit margin is really something a long term investor must be wary of.  I am however puzzled by the increasing number of standby letters of credit issued to various vendors to support the increased purchases; is this a sign of low confidence in Karin by its vendors?  Internally, Karin seems to be in celebration mood as the increased staff cost of HK$2.0 million resulted from higher provision of bonuses - is it because of its 35th anniversary recently or driven by an anticipation of an extremely strong financial results at full year?  Anyways, l am looking to accumulate more at lower prices or selling into strength on my current 8 lots holding say, at target selling price of $0.27 or higher.

  Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$1,342 Total Returns as of 8 Jun 

+$305 Dividends received from TPV

+$432 Unrealised positions improved

-$605 Total Returns as of 15 Jun

previous posting :- Cash - Closing Status 8 Jun 

SRS - Closing Status 15 Jun

Sold off M1 5 lots this week as it is already in profit position.  If its next dividend with expected XD date in July and at $0.066 then l am almost half way in achieving it now.  Looking at re-investing into M1 again when there is an opportunity to do so in the near future, hopefully before the expected XD date in July.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$1,756 Total Returns as of 8 Jun 
 
+$165 Profit on sales of M1

+$620 Unrealised positions improved

-$971 Total Returns as of 15 Jun

previous posting :- SRS - Closing status 8 Jun

Cash - Closing Status 8 Jun

Queued to invest into Lee Metal on 8 Jun. But only managed to get 2 lots so, the costs of investment is really high and this is due to the minimal brokers charges of $25.  Seems that l will have to continue to get more of Lee Metal so that l am able to cover the minimal broker charges when it is time to sell it away. 

Lee Metal's steel business is likely to continue weigh down total gross profit margin.  But l am certain management will continue to focus on higher ASP mix for its steel business to minimize the margin erosion.  On fabrication and manufacturing, though competition is getting into bitter fight over a shrinking business pie but if Lee Metal is able differentiate itself on being of better value proposition then this segment will continue to grow but l am hoping this is not at the expense of falling margin.

  
Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$454 Total Returns as of 1 Jun 

-$888 Unrealised positions worsened

-$1,342 Total Returns as of 8 Jun

previous posting :- Cash - Closing Status 1 Jun 

CPF - Closing Status 8 Jun

Received the CPF investment statement from the bank this week.  It shows dividends received from Wilmar, Capitaland, SPH and Cache Logistics in the month of May.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$14,723 Total Returns as of 1 Jun

+$362 Dividends from Cache Logistics, SPH, Wilmar and Capitaland

+$256 Unrealised positions improved

-$14,105 Total Returns as of 8 Jun

previous journal :- CPF - Closing Status 1 Jun

 

SRS - Closing Status 8 Jun

Received the SRS statement for May month in the mail this week.  There was a dividend received for  SGX of $40.

For this week, l have re-invested into M1 for 5 lots.   Its next dividend XD is some time in July and if l want to get paid on its dividend earlier then l will need to sell it at $2.50.  But as the market is still so uncertain then l can only get paid in advance on the dividends when l repeat the selling  and re-investments cycle.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$946 Total Returns as of 11 May 
 
+$40 Dividends from SGX

-$850 Unrealised positions worsened

-$1,756 Total Returns as of 8 Jun

previous posting :- SRS - Closing status 11 May

Cash - Closing Status 1 Jun

I have added Foreland 12 lots this week.  Foreland is already the biggest loser under my Cash portfolio and l will need to average down so that l can stand a better chance to divest at breakeven, progressively.  I  do not wish to divest it now at a loss. But l will likely continue to average down if its share price weakens further.

This week l have sold TPV 26 lots and SingPost 10 lots under my Cash portfolio.

TPV has big business exposure in Europe and with waves of negative development coming out from this region then it will definitely affect TPV's future revenue growth there.  TPV also has a large investment in China and with the escalating cost of doing business there then costs will definitely increase at much faster pace than any revenue growth there.  Though TPV gives reasonably good annual dividend rate estimated at US$0.0154 but l am pessimistic of its ability to overcome the business threats mentioned earlier in both Europe and China.  Also not really sure whether the newly formed TP Vision  is able to contribute positively to TPV's profit and improving both its cash positions and current ratio (including quick ratio) immediately.  I will continue to monitor TPV for reinvestment if all of the above improve.

SingPost will go XD in early July so l will still have time to reinvest into it as l have already sold off the entire 10 lots of it this week.  It was not able to break above $1.02 mark for a while now and the current market not seems helping at all.  There was also from time to time strong buying interest at $1.015 but as the world stock market closed Friday at disappointing levels so l reckon this could weigh down its share price next week. SingPost has been keeping investors in suspense on its plan to use its huge cash positions but l do hope its management is taking good advantage of current weak world economic to seek good bargains to generate much higher returns for investors.  I am eyeing to reinvest into SingPost when its price weakens again.

For this week, l have received dividends from UMS, Hock Lian Seng and HTL.
  

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$1,215 Total Returns as of 25 May 

+$510 Dividends from HTL, Hock Lian Seng, UMS

+$174 Gain from sales of TPV, SingPost

+$77 Unrealised positions improved

-$454 Total Returns as of 1 Jun

previous posting :- Cash - Closing Status 25 May 

CPF - Closing Status 1 Jun

Bought LippoMalls Reit 23 lots this week and am hoping that this will help improve slightly my CPF portfolio returns going forward.  Unless its share price dips lower, this will be a short term investment.  Exit selling price would be between 0.385 to 0.40 based on maximum annual dividend rate of estimated $0.0249.

Looking forward to update my CPF portfolio again on the dividends once the CPF investment statement is received in the mail.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$9,540 Total Returns as of 13 Apr

-$5,182 Unrealised positions worsened

-$14,723 Total Returns as of 1 Jun

previous journal :- CPF - Closing Status 13 Apr