Cash - Closing Status 20 Jul

Foreland Fabritech
Ever since l have started being serious with stock market back in Sep'11 (10 months ago) l have suffered huge losses three times under Cash portfolio.  The third time is the most significant and it is concerning Foreland Fabritech.  I was attracted into Foreland because of its better profit warning on 14 Feb and because of this l was blinded by the anticipation of higher dividends.  A week after l have invested into Foreland then came the disappointment of a lower dividend rate announced on 28 Feb.  Its share price came crashing down in the immediate next two days on 29 Feb and 1 Mar.  Foolish me, l have averaged down twice in Mar'12 and May'12.  It was the last straw when it announced a lower profit warning on 17 Jul and l have on the next day immediately executed a divestment of the entire 97 lots at a significant loss of $4,329!!!   As of Friday's last done price of $0.055 and if l am still holding on to the entire 97 lots then l will be poorer by $670 and it will be a paper loss of $5k but since l have fully divested so l will learn from it.  It is indeed timely that l have updated my investment strategy to exclude investing into companies having significant businesses in China.  There are many local Singapore companies with significant exposure to China market and l reckon they too will suffer in terms of expensive and escalating business costs which outstripped productivity.

IHH
Managed to get 1 lot of IHH Healthcare from the IPO.

Goodpack
For the past nine months both revenue and profit were growing at double digit and have healthy balance sheet and cash flow too.  However, logistic and handling costs stayed stubbornly high which Goodpack not seems able to reign it in, yet.  Goodpack is exposed to Europe but so far, there is no mention of it being a hinder so, finger crossed that it stays the same when it announced its final quarter results in a month's time.  l am hoping for Goodpack to declare a dividend rate of $0.03 when full year results is announced in Aug'12.  Its share seems oversold at the moment and further weakness will be an opportunity for me to accumulate further.

QAF
I have wanted to invest into QAF for quite some time so, l bought 15 lots of it this week.  I am anticipating a similar dividend rate of $0.01 which possibly XD in early Sep month.  This anticipated XD rate is same as paid in 2010 and 2011.  Its share seems have been in oversold territory now.  It is likely to stay in this oversold position next week if the general market condition stays weak.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$569 Total Returns as of 6 Jul 

-$4,329 Loss on sales Foreland Fabritech

+$3,160 Unrealised positions improved (mainly due to divestment on Foreland)

-$1,738 Total Returns as of 20 Jul

previous posting :- Cash - Closing Status 6 Jul 

SRS - Closing Status 20 Jul

Under the SRS portfolio this week, l have invested into both Nobel Group and QAF.

I have wanted to invest into QAF for quite some time so, l bought 8 lots of it this week.  I am anticipating a similar dividend rate of $0.01 which possibly XD in early Sep month.  This anticipated XD rate is same as paid in 2010 and 2011.  Its share seems have been in oversold territory now.  It is likely to stay in this oversold position next week if the general market condition stays weak.

Noble is a well diversified company (into three core areas) with the biggest segment being in energy.  And its business presence is every where in every corner of the world.  I reckon Noble is able to divert its management resources and funds easily to stay agile to business needs in order to stay profitable.  Prices of primary produce has been very volatile but l reckon this setback is only short term and by its next financial year, Noble will be back to regain its past glory.  This week, l have invested 20 lots into Nobel.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

+$203 Total Returns as of 6 Jul
 
-$129 Unrealised positions worsened

+$74 Total Returns as of 20 Jul

previous posting :- SRS - Closing status 6 Jul

Random thoughts

At half time 2012, l am tweaking some priorities ----> changing strategy.

Set at beginning of 2012, two approaches of trying to increase my realised positions via (1)actual dividend amount received; (2)selling a stock counter in advance before XD so as to achieve the expected interim dividend amount and hence making available more funds for re-investment.

Additional points at half time 2012 now, (3)to minimize or avoid investing into companies with substantial business links to China and Europe; (4) My selling price target on a stock is the anticipated interim/final dividend payment amount ----> this is a minimal price level on profitable stocks invested; (5) Hoping to divest in stocks which have strong strength at a profit equal to their full year dividends or at the maximum of twice its full year year dividends.

Both China and Europe are big regions and all businesses are in some ways or another having certain direct connections with them.  To me, Europe has actually collapsed so it will take a few years of bringing it back to the way before. I have already divested some stocks having substantial exposure to Europe and l will reinvested in these stocks again if it can reduce significantly their business dealings there.  On China, be it slowing down or not is never the real issue as l am more concern of the escalating costs of doing business there.  Many Singapore companies are suffering increasing staff costs and escalating raw materials with their business dealings in China.  Even Chinese companies originating and operating in China and are listed in Singapore also facing similar issues of lower profitability due to rising business costs there.

I have noticed there were many times l have sold off stocks following strictly to my selling price target which is determined by the expected dividend amount.  In a bear market, this selling price target is good but not during bullish periods. But then again, would l be able to achieve the selling price target in a bear periods?  Bearing in mind of these situations, l will then let the target selling price be the minimal price to exit and during strong bull periods then l will hold on a bit longer to sell at higher price.

Good luck to me.


p/s
as a reminder when l looked back to july month again next year on no trades this week.  No new investments because stocks are now at dizzling heights at the moment.  If buy now then l will get stuck; for example on stocks under CPF portfolio.

CPF - Closing Status 13 Jul

Received the CPF investment statement from the bank this week and am now updating the 2nd quarter charges under my CPF portfolio.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$10,680 Total Returns as of 6 Jul

-$15 CPF investment account 2nd quarter charges

-$356 Unrealised positions worsened

-$11,051 Total Returns as of 13 Jul

previous journal :- CPF - Closing Status 6 Jul

SRS - Closing Status 6 Jul

Invested into Keppel Corpn two months ago under SRS portfolio.  Its next XD date and dividend rate based on previous year is 27 Jul at $0.17.  If it is the same for this year then l would be expecting dividend amount $170 (1 lot x $0.17) if l am holding to it till XD on 27 Jul.  I have managed to sell it at a gain of $185 this week and hence it can be considered as an advanced dividend received.  Hope to invest into Keppel Corpn if its price is attractive again.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$971 Total Returns as of 15 Jun 
 
+$185 Gain on sales of Keppel Corpn

+$989 Unrealised positions improved

+$203 Total Returns as of 6 Jul

previous posting :- SRS - Closing status 15 Jun

Cash - Closing Status 6 Jul

New Toyo
Managed to clear off the remaining New Toyo 4 lots under Cash portfolio this week.  As mentioned in previous posting that l am expecting the rejuvenated new management team able to bring in more revenue and profit to the company which will further solidify its cash flow (and balance sheet).  Looking at investing into New Toyo when it price is attractive again.

HTL International
Invested into HTL 3 lots in mid April.  1st quarter results which was released in May was rather disappointing and scary.  Yes, its revenue catapulted 24.2% in 1st quarter but dangers which lurk in every aspects of its businesses are indeed a very serious concern :-

1.Its biggest sales at 49% is in Europe and everyone are well aware that this region is in chaotic condition now and there are many other important priorities in life than owning a luxury sofa.

2.Sofa business is at 94% of its core businesses and it is facing rising material and production costs.  GP margin from dropped from 35.3% to 33.4%. These cost pressures have outpaced  product selling price adjustments to customers.

3.Net borrowings increased by 31% or US$16.4 million due to more working capital required to fund higher production to meet increased in sales demand.

4.Negative FCF of US$15.7m in Q1 2012 as compared to a positive US$4.0 million in Q1 2011.

With the above bad news and other negatives, l reckon HTL will face extreme difficult times ahead.  l have been in the sell queue for almost 1.5 months and have finally managed to divest the entire 3 lots at par (minimal gain $5) this week. 

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$496 Total Returns as of 29 Jun 

+$46 Profits on sales of HTL and New Toyo

-$119 Unrealised positions worsened

-$569 Total Returns as of 6 Jul

 previous posting :- Cash - Closing Status 29 Jun 

CPF - Closing Status 6 Jul

Sold off Cache Logistics 2 lots this week under CPF portfolio.  Its next XD date and dividend rate based on previous year is 2 Aug at $0.02086.  If it is the same for this year then l would be expecting dividend amount $42 (2 lots x $0.02086) if l am holding to it till XD on 2 Aug.  I have managed to sell it at a gain of $43 this week and hence it can be considered as an advanced dividend received.  Hope to invest into Cache Logistics if its price is attractive again.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$12,255 Total Returns as of 22 Jun

+$43 Gain on sales of Cache Logistics

+$1,532 Unrealised positions improved

-$10,680 Total Returns as of 6 Jul

previous journal :- CPF - Closing Status 22 Jun