CPF - Closing Status 22 Jun

I have sold off LippoMalls 23 lots this week under my CPF portfolio for a profit of $344.

Its estimated dividend payout based on last year which XD on 11 Aug was at the rate of $0.0109 back then.  Based on 23 lots and at $0.0109, the expected dividend amount will be $251.  The $344 gain is definitely higher than the projected dividend of $251 and l am getting this dividend payout in advance in June instead of waiting for it to go XD in Aug month.

If only in those past years l could have been more careful in my investments then life would not have to be so tough today.  Looking at the current paper losses under this CPF portfolio then l know it is really going to be a long and tough journey ahead for me.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$14,105 Total Returns as of 8 Jun

+$344 Gain on sales of LippoMalls

+$1,506 Unrealised positions improved

-$12,255 Total Returns as of 22 Jun

previous journal :- CPF - Closing Status 8 Jun

CPF - Closing Status 1 Jun

Bought LippoMalls Reit 23 lots this week and am hoping that this will help improve slightly my CPF portfolio returns going forward.  Unless its share price dips lower, this will be a short term investment.  Exit selling price would be between 0.385 to 0.40 based on maximum annual dividend rate of estimated $0.0249.

Looking forward to update my CPF portfolio again on the dividends once the CPF investment statement is received in the mail.

Portfolio walk since previous posting :-

-$9,540 Total Returns as of 13 Apr

-$5,182 Unrealised positions worsened

-$14,723 Total Returns as of 1 Jun

previous journal :- CPF - Closing Status 13 Apr

LippoMalls to sell into strength or hold?

LippoMalls Reit (LMIR) disappoints with lower dividend declared for 1Q12.

Assuming an investor has 50 lots as of close of year 2011.  Its last done price on 30 Dec 2011 was $0.35 and it hit a high of $0.43 last week.  If the entire 50 lots is sold off then this is 23% gain or $4,000 profit amount.

Every stock price will not forever go up or down.

So, when this 50 lots is sold off then it can be bought back later when its share price going lower again say, at $0.37-$0.38 depending on one's risk appetite.


If l project its full year dividend at $0.051 then this is still 36% lower then the capital gain 23% achieved.  The capital gain is about 1.60 times (or years) of the annual dividend rate.

Is it not possible for this investor who have sold off his/her 50 lots to re-invest into LMIR within this 1.60 years at lower price than $0.43?
   

Right Reit l Like - 2 Mar

This is the final week to get into to both MIIF and CapitaRChina.  Stock that goes ex-dividend not necessarily will shed its share price.  It is really not so easy to forecast how a share price would react when it goes ex-dividend.  I reckon, stock that goes ex-dividend in a positive stock market would see its share price either unchanged or going up further; and its share price would go south in a negative market.  So, is it still worth going into both MIIF and CapitaRChina?

Looking at ROC itself is not that practical though.  As shown in the table below :- CDL Trust - ROC 3.09%, dividend amount $267;  LippoMalls - ROC 2.93%, dividend amount $293.  Though CDL (3.09%) has a higher dividend yield rate versus LippoMalls (2.93%) but when it comes to absolute dividend amount, LippoMalls ($293) is much better than CDL ($267).  As below is based on last year's declared interim dividend rate, circumstances this year would be different.  For example, Pluit Village and Plaza Medan Fair will add more rent collections for LippoMalls and revenue from Studio M Hotel will go into full swing for CDL.


The table below is assuming that all other matters remaining constant as each Reit stock has varied and many types of planned changes to its portfolios; so, the table below is just a quick guidance of the possible returns which can be so much different for an investment amount of $10k.   

Just to remind myself on my journal of 18 Feb :-
Money is always not enough so it must be used to work hardest so as to generate highest returns.  Assuming that l have $10k of funds and my focus is Reit and business trust; and also investment horizon timeline is important - one to two months or less than 6 months. Because of short investment timeline preference, l will not be looking at annual dividend payout rate. So, this table goes to show that with a available funds of $10k, l can get say, Cambridge 19 lots and its dividend amount of $190 versus say, Sabana Reit 10 lots which generates dividend amount of $304. Both stocks are having ex-dividend dates in May month.  A loyal investor on Cambridge would loose out to a cyclical investor who would have selected Sabana instead.  If stock prices are lowered (or gone up) then l can buy more (or less)  and this will directly affecting the dividend amount and its yield.  If the overall stock market is in a bull run but not supported by a bullish economy then there is no reason to drool over the high dividend amount and buying into the high dividend yield stock immediately.  Just Do It is not suppose to work this way.

previous journal :- Right Reit l Like - 24 Feb

Right Reit l Like - 17 Feb

Money is always not enough so it must be used to work hardest so as to generate highest returns.  Assuming that l have $10k of funds and my focus is Reit and business trust; and also investment horizon timeline is important - one to two months or less than 6 months. Because of short investment timeline prference, l will not be looking at annual dividend payout rate.

From the table and for Reit with ex-dividend date in the next one to two months, the top five value for money Reits are Frasers Comm, CapitaRetail China, MIIF, First Reit and Suntec Reit.

For longer ex-dividend dates, l would go for Ascendas India, Ascott Reit, K-Reit, Saizen Reit and Sabana Reit as these are expected to generate much higher returns versus popular Reit stocks, as an example on LippoMalls, Cache Logistics, Cambridge Industrial, K-Green, CitySpring and others.

So, this table goes to show that with a available funds of $10k, l can get say, Cambridge 19 lots and its dividend amount of $190 versus say, Sabana Reit 10 lots which generates dividend amount of $304. Both stocks are having ex-dividend dates in May month.  A loyal investor on Cambridge would loose out to a cyclical investor who would have selected Sabana instead.

The ranking will not be static as older ex-dividend dates will become obsolete as newer dates will then be assumed and their re-ranking is required.  As all stocks prices have gone up by a lot in recent weeks then its probably unwise to rush in to buy my favorite counters.  There is "plenty" of time till ex-dividend dates in March and if this is missed, ex-dividend dates in April and future months can be targeted.

If stock prices are lowered (or gone up) then l can buy more (or less)  and this will directly affecting the dividend amount and its yield.  If the overall stock market is in a bull run but not supported by a bullish economy then there is no reason to drool over the high dividend amount and buying into the high dividend yield stock immediately.  Just Do It is not suppose to work this way.

Reit stocks are popular as passive income source but they can be leveraged for an even bigger and better returns.  It is better not be overly sentimental  on certain Reit stocks but be always ready to consider other Reit stocks.  Thinking of only the same and certain Reit stocks are god-send is not a wise decision.  Even research houses do not always have the same stock pick within the same industry (hospitality, industrial, office, retail, etc.).

Advance dividend from LippoMalls

I have sold LippoMalls 32 lots on 13 Jan whereby the exit price was the assumed dividend (at $1.11 cents) back then.   LippoMalls announced its full year results this evening, and also made known the dividend payout rate at $0.53 cents.

By doing so, l can plan my exit price and hence it is as good as l have already collected a much higher dividend when l have sold all of it on 13 Jan; otherwise l will have to wait till 16 Mar for the dividend amount (and at a much lower amount).

Exit strategy - the dividend approach

l am using a new approach this year 2012 on getting paid in advance on the dividend amount.  Which is actually all about selling a stock at no loss before or after its ex-dividend date.  What is the time frame of being paid in advance?  IMO, this can be in the range of a few days to one year, to its anticipated ex-dividend date.   Below is the example.

Selling with gain on a stock in advance of its ex-dividend date is not really trading or investing on the basis of speculation.  This is because there is already a target selling price to exit to begin with.

The dividend rate is not always the same quarter-to-quarter or year-on-year unless it is the-like of SingPost.  But it is really a good gauge to form the target selling price to exit.

If the stock price goes south after ex-dividend then l can have the choice of offsetting the dividend amount received and selling the stock at gross loss but still profitable with nett gain - dividend amount received less away realised gross loss.  Each investor has his own preference.  l do not wish to subscribe to this offsetting strategy though; probably not yet - which means not for now.  Except for Reits, there are many companies paying dividend but l am eyeing those that are not fundamentally rotten to the core.  This way, if the stock price goes deeply south upon ex-dividend l can still hold at next exit opportunity, probably at breakeven; as there is no danger that the company is getting into a going concern issue over the next few months.

In the illustration, if l limit my investment amount in the range of $2k then l can buy 5 lots of LippoMalls at price of 0.395.  Hence l can actually anticipate dividend amount of $53 or $55.50 using past dividend payout as basis and assuming that its ex-dividend date is same as last year, on 22 Feb.  So, here l have set my exit selling price to be at $0.415 and it is only $0.02 away from original purchase price.

Setting the exit selling price and the eventual actual selling price can different as the former is not really cast in stone yet.  If a stock happen to be wrong purchase then l will target to sell it at breakeven.  And also, if the exit selling price later prove to be a tough hurdle to overcome then it is not an unforgivable thing to do by selling it at a slightly lower selling price.

After exiting the stock way before it goes ex-dividend, the price can still run up.  But l can tell myself that l have already pocketed the dividend, in advance of its ex-dividend date.  And l have no wish of speculative trading.  So, no worries really.

Going long into a stock for value investment (say, on Keppel Corpn, Kingsmen, MIIF-MacqIntInfra, SingTel, Starhub, SIA Engineering, SMRT, etc.) is good but one needs to be mindful of getting overly emotional attached over it (be it one or two stocks).  This is because it shuts off one's mind of other even better or good opportunities around and blinded of the danger in putting all funds in a basket.  In value investment, there is no exit strategy.  Perhaps l can jot down some notes of this matter in future blog.

Cash - Closing Status 13 Jan (continued)

Here are some details on the stocks purchased and sold under Cash portfolio this week :-


TechOil&Gas (5CQ)
Expected dividend payment in February and interim dividend amount estimates of $270 for 9 lots.
To get advance payment on the dividend, sold 9 lots (in January) at nett gain amount of $305.
Future plan to re-invest when stock price is weaker so, a possible cycle of the above.


Latitude (5OY)
Expected dividend payment in March and interim dividend amount estimates of $140 for 10 lots.
To get advance payment on the dividend, sold 10 lots (in January) at nett gain amount of $144.
No immediate future plan to re-invest in this stock.



LippoMalls (D5IU)
Expected dividend payment in March and interim dividend amount estimates of $355 for 32 lots.
To get advance payment on the dividend, sold 32 lots (in January) at nett gain amount of $342.
Future plan to re-invest when stock price is weaker so, a possible cycle of the above.



SuntecReit (T82U)
Expected dividend payment in March and interim dividend amount estimates of $13 to $24 for 4 lots.
To get advance payment on the dividend, sold 4 lots (in January) at nett gain amount of $25.
No immediate future plan to re-invest in this stock.



HTL Int (H64)
Expected dividend payment in May and interim dividend amount estimates of $480 for 12 lots.
To get advance payment on the dividend, sold 12 lots (in January) at nett gain amount of $486.
Future plan to re-invest when stock price is weaker so, a possible cycle of the above.


K-REIT (K71U)
Bought 5 lots in time for interim dividend going ex-date end January.  Will sell stock earlier than scheduled if price hits estimated interim dividend amount otherwise hold till next review during subsequent dividend ex-date in July month.


OKP (5CF)
Was planning to sell entire 3 lots holding.  But wrongly entered sell queue as buy queue at higher price.  So, l have doubled my holding on this stock at 6 lots due to mistake. Will sell stock earlier if price hits estimated interim dividend amount before ex-date in May month otherwise hold till next review during subsequent dividend ex-date in August month.


Keong Hong (5TT)
Bought 35 lots for its dividend ex-date in February.  Will sell stock earlier if price hits estimated dividend amount otherwise hold for selling into strength at break-even.  This is a risky counter during this weak property outlook for Singapore.  But am hoping that it is still able to shine as its business activities covers a broad range of building construction services not just for residential but also for commercial, industrial and institutional projects.  I will be extremely cautious to go long on this company as its income statement seems so bad with very thin profit margin.

related posting :- Cash closing Status 13 Jan

Cash - Closing Status 30 Dec

Sold Ocean Sky 20 lots.  Queued to sell 22 lots but only 20 lots was sold so what will l do with the remaining 2 lots on Ocean Sky .....

I have bought into Ocean Sky (on 15 Dec) after its ex-dividend date so l would have to wait till its next dividend payment in May 2012.  Based on Ocean Sky 22 lots and from its 2011 dividend payout, l would have gotten a gross dividend of  $350.  Selling the whole of 22 lots at the price which l have gotten for 20 lots at $0.133 would have given me a $340 nett gain (after clearing fee, etc.).   On 20 lots, the investment cost was $2325 and with the gain of $306 this equals to annualised rate of 13.2%.  I am not into punting so l will not loose sleep over it if its price going higher in the coming days or weeks ahead.  l have received a so-called retrospective dividend payment so this is really a bonus. 

The whole of this week, only managed to sell into strength on Ocean Sky but not other counters on my to-sell list; which goes to show overall market mood is still quite pessimistic. 

The stocks counters of five largest funds allocation are still the same as last week's.  Figure in bracket was previous posting's number. Five big stocks in their biggest funds allocation order are :-LippoMalls 16% (15%), CitySpring 8% (7%), Tech Oil & Gas 10% (10%), Suntec Reit 6% (6%) and FSL 8% (8%) totaling to 48% (47%) of the overall Cash portfolio.

 previous : Cash - Closing Status 23 Dec

Cash - Closing Status 16 Dec (unrealised stocks status)

Added Tech Oil & Gas 4 lots, HTL Int 6 lots, Ocean Sky 22 lots, LippoMalls 9 lots.

Sold SingTel 0.500 lots.

I hope to sell these counters next, which failed the annual dividend target based on a 100% funds allocation test - Mapletree Ind, First Reit, Cache, SingPost, Starhill Global, STXPO, Suntec Reit.  Restructuring and reallocation of portfolio is necessary so as to maximize (dividend) returns due to limited funds.  Selling these counters now would means suffering losses so, l will wait for better prices.

Most difficult to sell is STXPO of 0.1 lots, which was purchased in June 2008 and from past records which l managed to retrieve it was subject to share consolidation in Dec 2008.  Selling STXPO now means a loss of $2.2k!  STXPO will be in my to-sell list for the longest time.

Five big stocks in their biggest funds allocation order are LippoMalls 12%, CitySpring 8%, Tech Oil & Gas 8%, Suntec Reit 7% and FSL 7% totaling to 41% of the overall Cash portfolio. Suntec Reit will soon be removed from this five big stocks and be replaced by LippoMalls, CitySpring and Tech Oil & Gas.



previous post :-

Cash - Closing Status 09 Dec

LippoMalls (D5IU) refinancing

Another Reit company announcing refinancing; this time round it is LippoMalls Reit.

Below is the announcement extract :-

Refinancing of Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust's existing borrowings due on 26 March 2012

Further to its announcement dated 28 September 2011 relating to the entering into of a facility agreement to, inter alia, refinance its existing bank borrowings due on 26 March 2012, LMIRT Management Ltd., as manager of Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust ("LMIR Trust", and as manager of LMIR Trust, the "Manager") is pleased to announce that LMIR Trust has, on 13 December 2011, effected a drawdown of S$147,500,000 under the facility agreement and has successfully refinanced its existing bank borrowings. The new facility will be due for repayment 30 months after 13 December 2011.

Cash - Closing Status 09 Dec (unrealised stocks status)

Added HwaHong 5 lots, LippoMalls 9 lots, FSL 15 lots.

Sold Noble 2 lots, MacqIntInfra 3 lots, CDL HTrust 2 lots, CapitaComm 2 lots, MappletreeLog 5 lots.

Tested  my cash portfolio as of Dec 02 on dividend returns in absolute dividend amount on the assumption of what-if available funds of $10k and also the full 100% allocation of the funds against each stock.

If $10k is in POSB bank savings account, l will get $5 annual interest.

If $10k is spent on goods and services in a year which comes with 7% GST, l will suffer $700 on GST paid.

With 100% of $10k allocation against each stock, the counters which l have sold this week (Noble, MacqIntInfra, CDL HTrust, CapitaComm, MappletreeLog) failed to give me an annual dividend above $800.  This $800 is enough to cover the GST amount paid but remaining $100 (in a year) is really too little. 

Of these three counters added this week, HwaHong is riskiest (per its 3rd quarter financial statement), what got into me investing in this counter ... OMG.  l will continue to monitor it.

previous posting :-
Cash - Closing Status 02 Dec

K-REIT (K71U) Rights Issue

Wondering if K-Reit is able to pull off a similar superb showing as LippoMalls Rights Issue?
Really doubtful K-Reit can have an oversubscrription when there are so many hot debates resulting from its controversial purchase.

LippoMalls (D5IU) Rights Issue Oversubcribed

Over subscription  rate  at 165.1%.  This goes to show investors favour this counter, very strong supporters.  Hoping to buy this counter one day.

Ms Viven G. Sitiabudi, Chief Executive Officer of the Manager (LMIRT) said :-

"LMIR Trust's Rights Issue was an overwhelming success with a subscription level of
165%. In fact, it is our understanding that this take-up rate is one of the highest in S- REIT sector since 2009.  We are delighted and grateful for the strong support shown from our existing unitholders and would like to take the opportunity to welcome our new unitholders who purchased the nil-paid rights. This is a strong vote of confidence in both the strong growth potential for LMIR Trust and its future direction.  Net proceeds of approximately S$332 million from the rights issue will be used to partially fund the acquisition of Pluit Village and Plaza Medan Fair, two quality malls with attractive yields. Our growth will be fast-tracked with the addition of the two malls, expanding our portfolio to 10 retail malls and 7 retail spaces, and increasing total assets by 30% to approximately S$1.6 billion, providing us with enhanced scale and visibility,"